EPL managers don't get fired..."Man U-Chelsea, look at you, you're good enough"
In the 2022/23 English Premier League season, a total of five managers were sacked in the three months between the start of the season in August and November. Scott Parker of AFC Bournemouth, Thomas Tuchel of Chelsea, and Steven Gerrard of Aston Villa were among the managers who were given the boot after failing to deliver results.
The 2023/24 season will be different. Despite being 26% of the way through the schedule, all 20 clubs' managers are in good hands. There hasn't been a single resignation, let alone a direct 'knife in the back' from a club's leadership.
The Athletic, a global sports media outlet, analyzed the reasons for this in-depth discussion on its podcast on the 2nd (KST).
"The main reason is that the gap between the top teams and the bottom teams has narrowed a lot," said Duncan Alexander, a reporter for The Athletic, adding that this has allowed managers at the bottom of the table to keep their jobs.
"Whether it's actual goals scored minus expected goals scored (G-xG) or goals scored in live ball situations, the gap between the bottom teams and the top teams is very small," Alexander said. "So the owners of mid-tier clubs might think, 'If we play well, we can catch the top teams. That's why they don't necessarily change managers."
G-xG is an indicator of actual goals scored minus expected goals scored, and the higher the number, the more goals scored than expected and the more goal-decisive a team is. It's a sign of good finishing or luck. On the other hand, a lower number means that the team scored no goals compared to the chances they created, which can be interpreted as bad luck or poor finishing.
FBrev, a site specializing in soccer statistics, backs up Alexander's claim.
The teams with the lowest G-xG ratings in the Premier League right now aren't the teams in the relegation zone - Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United. It's Manchester United (-3.7), Everton (-5.7), and Chelsea (-6.2), with two of the "big six" (United and Chelsea) in the bottom three.
The fact that United, Chelsea, and Everton are scoring fewer goals than expected suggests that there is room for relative underdogs to take a 'can do' approach.
"Since the inception of the Premier League (in 1992/93), with the exception of the 1998/99 season, all three promoted teams have been 먹튀검증 relegated in the very next season," Alexander said, adding that at least one of Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United, who are currently in the bottom half of the league standings, could historically bounce back.
Given the historical jinx and the objective numbers, it's likely that the owners of the bottom clubs are leaning toward a plan to stockpile strength and then try to climb the table, rather than replace their managers immediately.